Harsh Goenka, an eminent business personality, mentions in a recent tweet, navigating through and understanding geopolitics is a key priority for the global CEO. I could not agree more. The tweet inspired me to dig deeper into the subject, and as my quest continues, I write this blog to emphasise on the importance of geopolitics in modern businesses and politics and raise more questions, for the discerning reader to study and find answers.
In my readings till now, I have referred to the works of Tim Marshall, Robert Kaplan, Klaus Dodds, Kamil Zwolski among few others. All are great authors with most compelling insights. Quite interestingly, I find, all world leaders to be constrained by geography. Their choices are limited by the mountains, rivers, seas and concrete. Yes, to follow the world we need to understand people, their history, ideas and movements – but if we don’t know geography, we may never get the big picture.
What is geopolitics? Simply put, it’s a branch of geography that explains the relationships between geographical realities and international affairs. Broadly speaking, geopolitics looks at the ways in which international affairs can be understood through geographical factors; not just physical landscape – the natural barriers of mountains or connections of river networks – but also climate, demographics, cultural regions and access to natural resources. These factors have an important impact on many different aspects of our civilisation, from political and military strategy to human social development, including language, trade and religion.
To put the subject in a historical context, the word geopolitics was coined by Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellen, in 1899. Some other important promoters of early geopolitics, worthy of mention are:
Fridriech Ratzel, early pioneer of geopolitics, state as a living space
Halford MacKinder, founder of Eurasian Heartland theory
Alfred Thayer Mahan, the foremost expert on naval military strategy
Nikolas Spykman, author of the Rimland theory
Karl Haushofer, leader of the Nazi school of geopolitics
All above and perhaps a few others, shaped geopolitics of the late 19th and the early 20th centuries. The age was defined by relationship of physical earth and politics, consequences of Western imperialism. 1920s/30s was associated with ‘Lebensraum’ and Hitler’s policy of territorial expansion. Then comes the years of Cold War, the era of US – Soviet contest over world resources and control. The Post-Cold-War was the time of understanding world politics in relation to geography, offering ‘big picture’, thinking local, regional with global. Those of you wish to get deeper into the history of geopolitics, may read more of these pioneers. There is a good body of work available.
Popular uses of geopolitical theory may be seen in US foreign policy, the rise of China, the Russia – Ukraine conflict and several others. Geopolitics is often used to analyse American foreign policy, especially in the unpredictable regions, such as the Middle East or South – East Asia. For example, we can explore the geopolitical consequences of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Geopolitics is also used to talk about the regional and global ambitions of China, especially in the South China Sea. We can also explore geopolitics of China’s strategy in Africa, Western Balkans or Middle East. Most recently, geopolitics has been used to understand Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the war in Donbas and the full-scale invasion of 2022.
Every country, whether at war or at peace, is affected by geopolitics. In Russia we see influence of the Arctic, and how its freezing climate limits Russia to be a truly global power. In China there are limitations of power without a global navy. The USA is a classic example of how expansion of territory in key regions, allows it to become the two-ocean superpower that it is. Europe shows us the value of flat land and navigable rivers in connecting regions with each other and producing a culture that kick-starts the modern world. Europe’s major rivers do not meet, creating natural boundaries and spheres of influence. This somewhat explains why there are so many countries, in a relatively small landmass. Africa is a prime example of the effects of isolation. Each region of Africa, a huge continent, is isolated from each other and from the outside world. Less isolated as days go by, but the legacy of isolation remains. The conflicts of India – Pakistan or Iraq – Syria are rooted in colonial powers ignoring rules of geography and drawing artificial borders on paper, resulting in continued violent attempts to redraw the lines.
As I said earlier, this blog will be more of questions than answers, for the interested reader to dig deeper. These questions and maybe many more, can be answered after studying geopolitical factors, compulsions and obligations. What influenced Russian action in Ukraine? What is it about Ukranian geography that makes it so important for Russia? Did the West fail to anticipate the action? Does China feel secure within what it sees as natural land borders? How does this affect Beijing’s approach to maritime power and the USA? What does this mean for India? For over 200 years USA has benefitted from favourable geographical conditions and natural resources. Now it has unconventional oil and gas. Will this affect its global policy? Despite its natural riches, India has not matched China’s growth. Why? India has a large, well-equipped modern navy. But will it compete well with the Blue Water navy of China?
I promise to come back with more on geopolitics. In the meanwhile, I urge you all, business leaders and my discerning readers, to explore this fascinating subject in your free time. It will definitely help you understand better, what is going on around us. It is indeed time we put the ‘geo’ back into prominence in geopolitics. A little word of caution towards the end. Seeing geography as a decisive factor in the course of human history may be construed as a bleak view of the world. It may suggest that nature is more powerful than man and is an all-powerful element determining our fate. However, needless to say there are other factors that have lasting influence too, on global events. We can all see how modern technology is bending the iron rules of geography, finding ways over or under some barriers. But again, in the end, please note these two points. First, on which side of Russia are there no mountains? West. What’s happening there? Second, what lies between India and China? The mighty Himalayas. Two giant countries sharing a very long border, not politically aligned or culturally similar, could have fought several wars, but other than in 1962, they never have. Is it because the Himalayas are difficult to cross? We are not complaining.
